Alarms blare as a huge storm crashes in off the North Sea, taking out the St Fergus gas terminal in Aberdeenshire. A power failure renders the Hatfield Moor gas storage facility in Yorkshire useless. A foreign power attacks subsea power cables from Norway.
Stay calm, it’s only a drill. These are the sorts of eventualities the energy industry will simulate next week, as a routine annual emergency gas shortage drill takes on national significance. The length of the “Exercise Degree”, which is run by National Grid, has been doubled this year from two days to four and takes place on 13-14 September and 4-5 October. It could not come at a more relevant time: debate is raging over how probable blackouts are this winter and whether Liz Truss’s energy bills freeze increases that probability because she has not encouraged rationing.
In the rest of Europe, officials have already taken action to limit usage in a variety of ways, as Vladimir Putin weaponises gas supply even further. Germany has capped heating of public offices at 19C (66F) and switched off lighting on public monuments; in Spain, air conditioning in hotels and restaurants can go no lower than 27C; and in France, air-conditioned shops that do not keep their doors shut to save energy risk a €750 (£650) fine. In California, consumers have been asked to reduce consumption as a heatwave puts strain on the grid.
So far, Truss has declined to follow suit. While there have been hints about an imminent public information campaign to encourage people to reduce energy use, so far, the new prime minister has refused to either introduce mandatory rationing for households and businesses, or urge the public to cut back. The decision is deeply political. While the government has argued the country is not reliant on Russian gas, consumers are exposed to the wholesale price rises that have resulted from Gazprom’s supply cuts to Europe. Low wind or very cold weather could also play a part in the increased likelihood of blackouts this winter. Leaked planning documents have suggested the power could go out for four days in January under a worst-case scenario.
However, after repeated Covid lockdowns, there appears to be a deep reluctance to tell the public how many times they should use the kettle a day or when to put the dishwasher on, amid fears it would further erode the principles of libertarian Tories. Asked last week whether she ruled out energy rationing, Truss said: “I do rule that out. Yes.” The government has repeatedly said consumers and businesses should have confidence they will have the power they need over the winter.
View image in fullscreenLiz Truss has ruled out energy rationing and is focusing on oil and gas. Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
“It is really down to governments to give people good advice rather than allow them to make wrong decisions,” says Dr Jan Rosenow, a director at the Regulatory Assistance Project, a thinktank. “There is a political risk from saying it wants to limit your energy use and this government has said it’s not keen to intervene. They believe energy use is the choice of individuals.”
Stew Horne, the head of policy at the Energy Saving Trust, a not-for-profit organisation, says: “In Europe, we’re seeing national turndowns to reduce the pressure on generating electricity and manage the extreme costs. These discussions are well developed in other jurisdictions, but we do not have that here yet.
“By contrast, we’ve seen lots of individual interest from both consumers and businesses about reducing energy for this winter, as well as long-term measures like insulation.”
Ultimately, with inflation running at 10.1% and the £2,500 energy bills freeze still nearly double the Ofgem price cap a year ago, many consumers will ration their usage with or without a government or industry-led campaign. Horne says: “There are already signs that people are self-rationing or self-disconnecting, which is very worrying given that we’re in summer when energy use is typically lower.”
However, there are concerns that the support package announced by Truss this week may discourage people who can afford those bills from making energy savings around the house. Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned: “If you’re holding prices constant, what takes the strain is supply, so that increases the risk that you’ll end up with shortages.”
Accurate forecasts on the likelihood of blackouts are difficult to make while the question over whether Russia will completely cut off gas supplies to Europe looms large. Other possibilities, such as a reduction in energy supplied to the UK from Norway and France this winter, lurk too. There are planned shutdowns for two units at the Heysham nuclear plant in Lancashire in October and November, threatening to put further strain on the system.
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However, Britain can take heart from its track record. It is estimated the average household experiences less than 30 minutes of power outages a year, despite extreme cases such as properties that lost power for days after storms earlier this year.
With the nights drawing in, have ministers left it too late to galvanise the public around a campaign to reduce energy usage? Precedents suggest not. Take the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. In the days afterwards, Japan swiftly switched into power-saving mode, turning off lights, printers, vending machines and idling lifts. Business attire even changed to save on air conditioning – ties were out, polo shirts came in.
A landmark report from the International Energy Agency notes that severe droughts in Brazil in 2001 led to the country reducing its electricity use by 20% over 10 months through rationing and penalties for those who failed to cut back on consumption. The same year, blackouts were avoided in New Zealand through a “10 for 10” campaign to reduce electricity use by 10% during a 10-week period, amid concerns about hydroelectric power shortages.
“I’m surprised there has been no advice or temporary rules around energy efficiency,” Rosenow says. “Given the severity of the cost situation and the huge risks in the supply chain, we have not seen any significant initiatives to impact the demand side. We’ve seen plenty of discussion on the supply side – around restarting fracking, oil and gas licences – but we still have huge energy wastage.”
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