Tuesday briefing: How Don’t Pay UK is channelling anger into action, while the FBI raids Trump mansion

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Before we get to the main topic of today’s First Edition, there have been dramatic updates from the United States.

In a stunning escalation, the FBI raided Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, the former president announced in a statement late last night. Federal investigators reportedly executed a search warrant on Monday morning, as part of the array of investigations into Trump’s affairs. (Read more about the plethora of lawsuits and investigations Donald Trump is facing in this brilliant recap.) This warrant is related to material Trump took from the White House to Mar-a-Lago, which included many pages of classified documents. Trump was in New Jersey at the time of the raid of his “winter White House” — his second home and own mecca which you can read more about here — and has since expressed outrage and fury in a statement comparing the raid to Watergate. Trump has attacked the search as a “weaponisation of the justice system” and, crucially, pointed to it as further evidence of a scheme to stop him from running for president in 2024.

The story is still unfolding, and I’ll keep a close eye on developments. Until then, let’s pivot back to a different crisis here in the UK.

With energy bills set to soar again in the autumn, it’s clear that people have had enough. More than 93,000 people have signed up to Don’t Pay UK, a campaign calling for 1 million people to pledge that they won’t pay their energy bills after the price cap is raised in the autumn.

However, such radical solutions do not come without risk. Charities have warned that mass non-payment could have dire consequences for individuals who take part. I spoke with Richard Lane, the director of communications at the debt charity StepChange, and Don’t Pay UK supporter and journalist Diyora Shadijanova about how we got to this point and why so many people are keen to join the fight. But first, this morning’s headlines.

Five big stories

1. Health | Research by the IFS has found that one in 25 heart attack deaths in the east and north-east of England would have been prevented if average cardiologist effectiveness was raised to the London level. The research reveals stark regional inequality, showing those in certain parts of the country have access to lower quality healthcare.

2. Culture | Olivia Newton-John, the musical star who found enduring fame for her leading role in the film Grease, has died aged 73. “Olivia has been a symbol of triumphs and hope for over 30 years sharing her journey with breast cancer,” said her husband John Easterling.

3. Politics | Boris Johnson has ruled out any new emergency measures to combat the cost of living crisis in the UK, saying that is for the future prime minister to address.

4. Ukraine | Russia has suspended an arrangement that allowed US and Russian inspectors to visit each other’s nuclear weapons sites, blaming in part Ukraine war sanctions.

5. Climate crisis | Experts warn drier winters and searing summers fuelled by global heating mean water shortages will become “the new normal” across Europe.

In depth: ‘The Tories don’t know what they’ve got coming’

View image in fullscreenProtestors at a cost of living demonstration in Birmingham. Photograph: Mike Kemp/In Pictures/Getty Images

Understanding the reasons behind why everything costs so much more at the moment is vital to resolve these issues in the long term, and it may well take a change in government before any structural change occurs. But that’s a long way off for those struggling to afford basic necessities like heat and electricity. That’s where organisations like Don’t Pay UK come in, attempting to put the power back in the hands of the public. Their goal is simple: to pressure energy companies into lowering their prices. It’s a radical move, but as charities warn that fuel poverty could lead to an increase in deaths this winter, the campaign seeks to give some hope to the people most affected by price hikes.

Who are Don’t Pay UK

Launched six weeks ago by an anonymous group in response to rocketing energy prices, Don’t Pay UK is supposed to be a grassroots campaign, building support both from online networks and in-person campaigning, in an attempt to sign up 1 million pledges to refuse payment of their energy bills. Their message is clear: it is unacceptable that companies are making dizzying profits, as customers struggle to heat their homes.

Diyora Shadijanova who has been organising in response to the energy crisis, and leafleting on behalf of the organisation, has witnessed first hand the anger the public are feeling. “The majority of the people I have spoken to are fuming with the energy prices and government inaction,” Shadijanova says. “The Tories really don’t know what they’ve got coming, and the fact that they are still refusing to bring any immediate measures of relief shows how out of touch they are on this issue.”

Refusing to pay your bills may seem extreme but it’s not the first time that people have taken to mass non-payment as an act of resistance. In 1989, 17 million people refused to pay the poll tax, a rare act of mass public protest that led to the reversal of the Conservative government’s policy. However, lawyers have noted that this is not an equivalent action — the poll tax was unilaterally imposed on the public by the government; energy bills on the other hand are based on a signed contract between a private company and a customer. Energy companies are within their legal rights to stop providing energy and could collect the debt they are owed through a debt collection agency, which would have negative consequences for people’s ability to get credit in the future – and could result in bailiffs arriving at their doors.

Don’t Pay UK have highlighted these potential consequences, and have said that unless 1 million people pledge to cancel their energy bills they will call the whole thing off. “Our strength is in numbers,” Shadijanova explains. “Those of us who have pledged are not just pledging to not pay unaffordable bills – we are also pledging to support and protect one another.”

Why are people struggling

Before this year, the reasons people would typically go to StepChange for help with debt would be crisis moments in their lives: shock, separations, divorces, job loss or ill health – that is no longer the case. “For the first time in our more than 29-year history, the top referrers of clients into the charity are energy companies,” Richard Lane tells me.

In April, energy regulator Ofgem increased its price cap by 54%, meaning that the average household’s bills jumped from £1,277 to £1,971. Those on prepayment metres saw an even greater increase of £1,309 to £2,017. And analysts are predicting the October price cap rise could hit an eye-watering £3,359 – and the rise will now be quarterly instead of six-monthly.

“People will use coping mechanisms for as long as they can,” Lane says. “They will turn to borrowing from friends and family, they will cut down on costs as much as they possibly can, they might take out loans.” Those who are most likely to turn to these options tend to already be in financially precarious situations, so will not be getting the most competitive interest rates, meaning that they may resort to high-cost credit.

“These kinds of coping mechanisms can only last for so long,” Lane explains. “And we’re incredibly worried about what that’s going to mean for households across the country.”

Could energy companies resist if 1 million people didn’t pay their bills?

While many charities, including StepChange, have issued warnings about the negative repercussions if this campaign goes ahead, Shadijanova is hopeful. “Not only will a successful campaign see a reduction in energy bills, which will create immediate financial relief for millions of families across the country, I also hope that people will feel empowered and demand a better future in other areas of their lives.”

Credit burau

Either way, whether it’s mass action or government intervention or both, something’s got to give. “If the government doesn’t act, we’re going to see a real increase in destitution and poverty,” says Lane. “There’ll be an increase in rent evictions. We’ll see people cutting back on food as much as they possibly can. We will potentially see people, particularly those on prepayment metres, who will have to self disconnect from energy.” And that means an increase in deaths. In 2019, 8,500 people died in England and Wales due to being unable to heat their homes, according to the ONS.

If nothing is done, Lane warns, “that is the grim reality we could potentially be heading towards.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Amelia Tait writes candidly about how she overcame the tyranny of calorie counting that consumed her as a teenager in thrall to anorexia, her “breath reeking of hunger” – and why it’s critical, especially for women, to break free. Craille Maguire Gillies, production editor, newsletters

• For years, Donald Trump and Fox News were inseparable. Adam Gabbatt chronicles the seeming dissolution of their relationship, how it happened and whether they could ever reconcile. Nimo

• Steven Poole has me questioning not only the nature of my reality but of all reality with his droll review of the idea among some scientists, philosophers and Elon Musk that our universe is a simulation. Poole surveys everyone from Chinese Taoist sage Zhuangzi to Descartes to cover a topic that raises more questions than it provides answers. Craille

• Laurie Macfarlane explains why slowing house price growth is not the good-news economic story for would-be home-owners that it sounds like it should be. Nimo

• Writer Abené Clayton and photographer Nicholas Albrecht explore extreme road rage in a moving long read about the alarming rise in gun violence on California highways. As the father of a murdered son put it: “The freeway isn’t the problem, it’s the lack of respect and value for life … Because of that, nowhere is safe.” Craille

Sport

Football | Barcelona cannot register their summer signings after La Liga rejected an attempt to use the club’s own funds to inflate the value of two of the asset sales that were supposed to balance the books and allow the club to meet the league’s financial regulations.

Commonwealth Games | England finished with a record 176 medals – 57 of them gold – at Birmingham 2022 but fell narrowly short of outperforming table-topping Australia.

Football | Juventus have agreed to sell midfielder Adrien Rabiot to Manchester United for an initial £15m, but personal terms for the France midfielder stil need to be discussed with his agent, the player’s mother, Veronique, before a deal can proceed.

The front pages

View image in fullscreen Photograph: Guardian

The Guardian leads with “Truss tax plans could cost £50bn a year without helping worst-off” while the Times has “Truss plan is electoral suicide note, warns Raab”. The i newspaper says “Tensions in Truss camp over cost of living help” and the Express goes with “‘Positive’ Truss: Britain’s best days are ahead of us”.

The Telegraph leads with “Driest year since 1976 as drought looms” and the Mail has “Police checks on Russian & Chinese nationals axed”. The Mirror splashes on Olivia Newton-John’s death with the headline: “Hopelessly devoted to you”.

The Sun reports on the assault trial of former Manchester United star Ryan Giggs with “Giggs rage”. The Metro’s take is “Idol Giggs an ‘ugly sinister abuser’”.

Today in Focus

View image in fullscreenOsama bin Laden (L) sits with his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri at his hideout in Afghanistan in 2001. Photograph: EPA

What next for al-Qaida after the killing of al-Zawahiri?

Senior international affairs correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison and Africa correspondent Jason Burke explore what the killing of al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri will mean for the terrorist group and its future in Afghanistan.

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

View image in fullscreen Illustration: Martin Rowson/The Guardian

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

View image in fullscreenDorothy Bowker, founder of the Bridge at Leigh, a low-cost community supermarket in the town of Leigh, near Wigan. Photograph: Alicia Canter/The Guardian

The Guardian angel series is always a bright spot in the week – providing treats to community heroes – but Sirin Kale’s chat with Dorothy Bowker is a particular delight. Bowker helped set up a community supermarket to provide low-cost food to those in the area who are struggling. It’s been a huge success: the group collects surplus stock from supermarkets that would otherwise go to waste and sells it at low prices. “People pay a £2 yearly membership fee,” Bowker says, “and can shop at really low prices. If they spend £5, they’re probably getting a bag of shopping worth £20 or even £25.” And what does she want as a reward? Some new garden furniture to enjoy a rare moment of calm in what was supposed to be her retirement.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword